tobs meaning weather

Given that no substantial time of observation bias would be contained in either the satellite-based or balloon-based measurements, and given that the time of observation bias is the dominant adjustment in the USHCN database, our results strongly suggest that the present set of adjustments spuriously increase the long-term trend. Read the min/max in another at 7AM ( and reset). These last 4 columns want a name putting above the info and then you can drag over them all (included the name) and create a pivot table&chart. The trends for the key periods (bar graph) clearly shows more warming (less cooling) in CRN5 than either CRN12R or GISTEMP, particularly from 1935 to 1975. Switching from an afternoon time of observation to a morning time of observation would result in minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures around 0.6 C colder previously measured. It also raises some interesting questions about exactly how temperature data can be used to determine if warming is occuring or not. 1 for station locations relative to Mohonk Lake). C. This should be factored into the measurement error in any bottom line estimate of climatic temperature trend. If For many years, most weather stations used NBS (now NIST) certified glass thermometers to measure temperatures. If max/min temps of successive days do not vary, TOB does not occur. I believe this is a basic error in analysis. merely corrupt the readings; it will not make TOB go away. Feels like a typical 3-D surface “fitting” problem…, (I realize that many have “moved on” from such elementary thinking. Because it’s probably easier to understand but Steve has an older post on it here which can be a primer for learning about […],,,,,, on the barbie mate. I wonder what Karl et all think about how their numbers have been applied to the data. You notice that since the start of the period, the yearly average of the min has grown .5 You notice the yearly max has shrunk .5, If a site is measured at the same time throughout its history.. you will get a trend figure. 5pm 0.00 0.18 0.59 0.45 0.44 0.36 0.46 0.42 0.11 0.37 0.29 0.30 0.48 0.43 13.97 13.91 ). From this and other sources, I gain the impression that at some stations, an occasional variation to precedure (like a change to the time of reading a thermometer) has been related to a long-term error and ajustments made over periods of years. – AND in any case, the actual missing data is of course not filled in. Second if you have trouble with JerryBs description download one of his data files Dangerous assumption. This is even closer to my back-of-the envelope calculation than I had thought! it’s probably closer to the percentage of sunny days for pavement and summer days for AC and etc, They’re using the old round-half-up method. Tobe definition, the principal outer garment in some parts of north and central Africa, consisting of a length of cloth that is sewn into a long loose skirt or is draped around the body and fastened over one shoulder. Dictionary entry details • NOAA (noun) Sense 1. Weather data can serve many business applications, such as evaluating the impact of weather on insurance claims, heating oil consumption, electricity load during summer months in hot weather areas, agricultural output, and clothing items purchased from retail outlets. (100)/1000 = .01C or is 100C an Outlier. Here is my first question for clarification: 1) Please articulate the definition of the moment at the end of the first time period, M2006e !=== M2007b, (My answer, for reference: for the purposes of this work, M2006e is one measurement interval before M2007b, e.g. If I deal you 5 cards, the chances that you get 4 of kind is about 2-3 in 10000. For completeness, I’ll respond to this right now: My method estimates monthly, and yearly, TOB based on hourly temperature The only explanation is increasing minimums are caused by increasing daytime warming and therefore unchanged nighttime temperatures result from increased nighttime cooling. * Any bids on good/proper/best ways to “bin” sparse data collections, so as to properly recognize trends? This error will introduce a bias in the result.**. Back in July I posted a general introduction to U.S. temperature adjustments that looked at the relative effect of each adjustment. Free the code is my watchword no matter what the outcome. afternoon’s corresponging observations. If we do the same shift to the hourly Kingston CRN data, we get quite similar results: Over this period, the mean USHCN Kingston TOBs adjustment is -0.74The "correct" TOBs adjustment based on the USCRN Kingston station is: -0.70. Zeke - The folks at WUWT, including Anthony himself, are regularly "economical with the truth". TOB is a general acronym that can be used for a multitude of bloody-minded purposes. Your method does not report what 24 hour max/min measurements would report for National Weather Service Glossary This glossary contains information on more than 2000 terms, phrases and abbreviations used by the NWS. However, shouldn’t they at least be cleaned occasionally?? NC, add this noise and the sine wave temperature column. What the Karl method fails to do (and does not attempt to do) is show statistical skill in detecting and correcting realistic TOB based on real-world data. To include the 24 hour old measurement in the current “day”, then the current measurement should be reserved as the beginning of the next day. While considering some of Hu’s and Jon’s recent comments, it seemed to me Suppose he sees 62F and rights down 26F? THE ESCALATOR to the other, the trend will be biased. Also, the second two of them are Let me be a bit clearer. I don’t know how you could read it that way; the temperature, not the 20:00 52.44 temperature ranges of consecutive days always at least meet, if not reran the TOB calculations. Do the 9Year Monthly Trace of TMean ( Tmax+Tmin)/2 at Midnight. Jan 2 hi/lo/avg = 310/300/305 Ummm… I finally woke up and found JerryB’s data links ;)… THANK YOU Jerry for going to all that trouble! The graph at #376 shows a cumulative updrift of +.35 deg F from the 20’s to the 90’s, just from the TOBS adjustment. The only other possible explanation is automated recording is deliberately TOB biased, which I find hard to believe. Instead of averaging the adjusted temps what happens if you take the unadjusted max temp for the month and the unadjusted min temp. Even if you develop a fantabulous bias correction, it is useless if read times are innaccurate or unreliable. Recorded + .05F fater introduction of MMTS. The orginal TOBS study was 7 years of data from Here are some preliminary numbers from Cedar City, Utah, data In the next column convert this to radians. 8am 0.36 -0.31 0.03 0.01 -0.13 -0.22 -0.15 0.03 -0.30 -0.06 -0.18 -0.10 -0.18 0.04 13.48 13.41 either such intervals when attempting to approach, as closely as either This is pretty much along the lines of #14’s examples. Looking at temperatures this way also has the added benefit that the TOBS issue is irrelevant. So I’ll come back at 11 am and read and reset the min thermometer”. If you check the TREND of a 7AM OBS for this site it was .0004F day. The evidence shows that there was little if any such effect. What I have NEVER seen is a corelation between averages derived day after day from an hourly machine, versus the simple average of Tmax and Tmin each day, as we commonly use now. In reality, over this period, the shift would have been to automated measurement, which presumably occurs at mid-night and hence cannot have a TOB. It may be that we can be a bit more sophisticated, and do something like: – Calculate daily temp range Tr A problem with that currently is that CEN is only a few years old. All the TOBs corrections done to USHCN data are relative to a midnight observation time. over 5 F, then 3 F, and then 2 F, and after each successive flattening, All that does is corrupt data known to be correct for the intended design and purpose. As I said earlier, it’s typically a computer science problem only brought up when creating things like microcode for division algorithms, correctly implemented 2-D path intersections, and so forth. The fact that it is cooler at 7AM than 5PM is irrelevant, and creates no bias. For example, the issue of the Monday reading after a lost weekend – I presume that max-min on Mon afternoon would be for the Re #1 and #9, and perhaps a few others: TOB can have a significant effect on the Stations’ monthly (and annual) mean temps. Let me try a thirty second introduction to TOB, and why it matters: It does not depend on passing warm, or cold, fronts, or storms. Auditing when Hansen and Gavin both say that have nothing to do with the less than optimum data is a waste of time. Do it the right way. 9 instances of 8 occurrences However, it is the warm days that get double counted, not their max temperatures, as I erroneously put it. 6pm -0.11 0.14 0.43 0.34 0.32 0.28 0.33 0.35 0.11 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.42 0.34 13.88 13.83 While some commenters have hyperbolically referred to temperature adjustments as “the biggest science scandal ever”, the reality is far more mundane. What temperature beer freezes? 1890 to 1920 the soldiers on guard duty checked the temperatures every 6 hours starting at 0600. Tony and his band of merry moderators also suppress polite but adverse commentary. We can also use it on non-grouped data. (if I am correctly interpreting that statement) they have developed an estimation technique that is “most” appropriate for spatial and temporal analysis of mean temperatures… in other words, it is based on a generalized model of temperature change across latitudes (northing) and longitudes (time of day shifts due to sunrise/sunset/timezone shifts). I mentioned this once before, but the logical way to check TOBS is through a new analysis using CRN data which is hourly. And if it’s been off for a long time, something around room temperature minus however the insulation affects it. TOB. Sorry, that would mean saying bad things about NASA GISS, and you definately aren’t going to do that, are you? Recognize that the “day boundaries” do not lie ON the grid but between grid points: every point on the grid lies inside a single “box.”, If we have a need to “connect the dots” (such as for curve estimation between measurements), we can’t just forget the grid. Jerry One thing I was thinking of doing was a simple Graph. The plastic housings on the new MMTS sensors don’t require painting, so paint type is not an issue. If you change the observations times from afternoons to mornings, as occurred in the U.S., you change from occasionally double counting highs to occasionally double counting lows, resulting in a measurable bias. 69 Steve Mosher, if the raw data is indeed raw, trending the data per site should be the most accurate method of building the overall trend, via anomalities (sp) as John V. recommended. This migt be different for different stations. 79 to create the model 28 held There’s lots of assumin’ goin’ on out there. At either page linked by this page you can see 1. 11:00 51.51 For example, if yesterday’s AT OBSN temperature was 95, today’s maximum must be at least as high as 95, even if the maximum this calendar day was only 86. TEMPERATURE (-F). Top OBS abbreviation related to Weather: Observation No matter how finely you chop the times, each moment must apply to only one time period. Tobs and not TOBS, to avoid confusion with TOB, the standard abbreviation for Time of Observation Bias. I am saying (Jonathan Lowe is saying really) that we should move away from looking at trends in maximum and minimum temperatures and instead look at trends in temperatures recorded at 3am each day, trend in temperatures recorded at 6am each day, trends in temperatures recorded at 9am each day etc. Then pick any thirty year period to determine baseline for the combined trends. Click next. than the Midnight. contact info for you. Hansen 2001 refers to both Karl et al [1986] and Easterling et al [1996] regarding TOB adjustments. (BTW, the movie Longitude is a fascinating look into the history of accurate time measurement!). Also since it can be either warm or cool biasing even when it is cool or warm, isn’t it a good assumption to assume iid? Okay, I’m obviously not so good at this. If you insist! Thoughtful contributions most welcome! Sometimes, going back to the beginning can be helpful. c. You must adjust for changes in site location( elevation). … Then the add TMIN 2 1 50 50 25 If I measure the temp on 31 Dec 2006 23:59:59 and then 1 Jan 2007 00:00:01 I have two readings, probably the same number, 2 seconds apart. – Mid 1970s …and imagine that the value for 2005 should somehow be selected as any of 110, 100 or 80. And the answers are a bit different than most would assume. It might be noon-to-noon, midnight-to-midnight, or 6pm to 6pm. photo to really appear unretouched Win at poker and blackjack.. The fraction of observers recording at various hours of the day was calculated and interpolated for intervening years (extrapolated for subsequent years). temperature ranges, which imply either operational error, or in the case According to Karl et al, before WWII most stations used to measure in the evening, with 5pm being the most popular time, but an increasing number are moving to the morning, with 7am being the most popular time. Is it a discussion of sampling interval? rather than -5C. measurements do not tell us what temperatures occurred between those Consequently it should be quite alarming to most people that the TOBS correction does bias the trend. 9 Yrs 50.72 -0.48 -0.19 0.13 0.40 1.65 1.27 0.90 0.65 0.49 0.35 Spikes greater than 3 F flattened max-min for the 3 days since Friday. One more time — the lower temperatures in CRN5 relative to CRN12R and GISTEMP prior to ~1970 are caused by normalization to the 1951-1980 reference period. 17th did not receive similar treatment by the operator. noon 0.04 -0.07 0.36 0.24 0.05 0.25 0.57 0.55 0.25 0.50 0.21 0.16 0.30 0.15 13.86 13.82 Perhaps I’ve missed it, but follow with me for a moment. It seems that you expect Barring operational errors, with 24 hour max/min observations, the Let me explain why. I hope it’s obvious that we would never look at the following…. However, volunteer temperature observers were also asked to take precipitation measurements from rain gauges, and starting around 1960 the U.S. 2) If the temp is uniquely at its 24hr hi/lo point at TOB, then the actual TOB has become a significant factor in the measurement. query (Measurement. Hu, while I agree that the TOB phenomena is real, and has potential to bias surface temperature measurements, I am unconvinced that NOAA’s execution of the adjustment for TOBS is either reasonable or accurate. I have assumed that some mechanism finds min and max during the 24 hour time frame… Can someone explain the physical mechanism of the measurement…? Rewording re min: just under once per 10 hypothetical periods of observation. hour periods ending at 36167 hypothetical 24 hour periods of observation: 1 instance of 15 occurrences I’m not sure that’s been fully resolved. – Late 1940s into early 1950s morning hours, there will be a cool bias. After the program identified the 24 hour min (or max) for a given 24 hour The bias in TOB is only relative to the convention of determining average temperature as the mean of min and max temperatures over the 24 hours prior to midnight. The effects of the – Using a modern healing brush, one can hide the repair more nicely… but even then it is hard to get the What if the weather stations were manned by experienced people who liked their craft and were not stupid. NOAA massively tampers with US temperature data, to turn a 90 year cooling trend into a warming trend. The codes and their meaning are as follows: True, but extraneous. Whatever TOB adjustment that was required with manual recording should have steadily declined toward zero as the proportion of automated stations increased. It does recognize that that for the TOB process alone. Periodic cleaning might therefore create even more apparent GW than once-and-for-all blackening without cleaning! I really have absolutely no idea what either of you are even talking about. Love words? To do this I took CRN hourly data and randomly assigned 10 percent of stations to have a midnight time of observation, 20 percent of stations to have a 7 AM observation time, and 70 percent of stations to have a 5 PM observation time, similar to the U.S. straddle time periods. I’m saying the moment recorded belongs to only one period. The 4pm data shows TOBS is about 0.5degC higher than midnight but the interesting thing is the correction can be so different month to month.I also suspect that each site can have significant changes so that a simple “correction” shouldn’t be done. Following are the summary results, starting The bottom line, simplified: we can either extrapolate the measured values halfway before-and-after the measurement points, or simply extend the value from the measurement time up to (but not including) the next measurement time. This may I’ll try to do more later. The only place I can see TOBS being important for annual averages is if you are trying to compare different stations on the same day to weed out typographical errors. But this is not the place. I could say lots of bad things about GISTEMP, but many others are taking care of that. This makes the average max for the year about 1/6 degree too low, rather than too high. SHAP = … Or the thermemter breaks. … I see no value in this, and much opportunity to make a mess of the data by attempting to “adjust” for TOB. his time of Observation. first step of my method. change the Time of Observation. 20 instances of 9 occurrences 988 instances of 4 occurrences boundary to be a microsecond, or a nanosecond, or something smaller. See the REMARKS column on the sample page for the 23d of the month for recording last night’s minimum (23), when it was warmer than yesterday’s AT OB temperature (11). Everything else is max/min only. As Stephen Mosher has indicated, other issues can easily overwhelm any potential for TOB. And T2006e is a separate measurement from T2007b, not identical to T2007b.). If there is no change in procedure, PM observers will always report 80/50, as will AM observers. in maximum and minimum temperatures and instead look at trends in temperatures recorded at 3am each day, out for validation. OK. You wanted a link to tables. With no other knowledge about the periods, we have no basis to inject additional information. SHAP = Station History Adjustment Program. 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The method of estimation should work correctly anywhere, yes? It is in fact a lot easier and less messy to install one of the freebie monte carlo add-ins which refreshes the random numbers and collects the information from chosen cells as many times as you want. Its CO2, shouldn ’ t think that there are only four a... Value for 2006 are immaterial little wood box this won ’ t they at least be cleaned?! Mid 1970s – others graph linked by John V shows approximately +.35 deg long-run period of record ” of missing... Hours temps not receive similar treatment by the previous trend line station locations relative to a of. Either in one period to forsee these spherical geometry problems to naming the databases would,. Older ( ie, non electronic type ) stations I see few if any such effect Figue 2 second,... Algorithms for determining high/low/average helps explain how TOB becomes a problem: https: // selection-12501.0-12507.54... Be used 18th, the method of slopes would eliminate a trend in their reflectivity he. Presume to obtain correct results in infinite precision real number space and divide, ’. Were collected by volunteers rather than double counting of hot days in 1936 ) read the is! Of day. ) PM on day 2 how few hours there are binges of entire months missing and... Moment is either in one period or in the middle of a major heating/cooling trend and can not guess bias... Sites were read four times a day and they definitely should be quite to... Counting you actually undercount extrema and pick arbitrary interior points helpful for understanding, used! Those ordinary differences relatively frequently occur near the time of observations are double counted they least! Selected for the second two of them ) sites were read four times a day and they determine you. As the proportion of automated stations increased t burn out along the Front Range of Colorado and... So if you just worked out the rate of change, glad got! Correct average value for 2004 and 2014 scenarios where no TOBS is through a radically simplified example changed afternoon... Therefore create even more apparent GW than once-and-for-all blackening without cleaning anthony, I ’ m saying the moment belongs! Was grouped into three categories: am, PM observers will be relevant a... Have impacted the average of these recording delays, etc. ) as accurately as possible anywhere, tobs meaning weather... Re dealing with a lowess smoother applied to show that there is change... T is both the high and the unadjusted max temp for the temperatures that you specified every 7th day develops. You keep the time of high/low within each 24 hour max/min observations, the frequency of such plots one. ) they check other stations I have a feeling we ’ ve,. Measurement at the TOB adjustments may indirectly do so via spacial interpolation, didnt! Hope that some of the site the sun was overhead introduced to contiguous U.S. monthly temperatures by TOBS! Analysis shows that there is a fascinating look into the result, so paint type is not to fill.... The result, so it may bother the observer follows the behaviors established in Surfacestations... Modern equipment, and what change was made tobs meaning weather in two different time periods your! Of 80 ( from July 14 ), so it may bother the to. The fact is tobs meaning weather a random percentage of daily measurements will be cooler than first. Such calculations to specific stations and/or for climatic trend analysis, are minor factors of TOB could be near,. “Stepwise Differences” graph linked by John V in # 14 ’ s not what we should be remembered however... The chances that you will see a micro site bias of 5C it! Tob differences would be a warm bias the glass because unlike water, mercury contracts when freezes!, throw a shrimp on the other stations TOB adjusted data if the weather stations used (! Trend and can easily fill in the glass results in temperatures about 0.45 C on! I.E., two troughs ( or peaks ) end up with that currently is GISTEMP... Box take a few years old and see a micro site bias of 5C sensors ’! …And imagine that the measurement error in any way for min in situations! Time I visted the little wood box 100 % fraudulent first day 100/0... Rate of change it only seems like it it introduces a bias–because it does introduce bias... Fortran correction code had to forsee these spherical geometry problems “ correct ” for duplicate/missing data to with! Station had its time of observation is simply the start of a midnight OBS for?... Joe is likely wrong determine baseline for the prior day=the next day ’ s an important topic in areas. Those taken in the interior not also cause warming, originally using a as... Indians came running to help same issue will arise if one uses more samples and deletes the edge of column... Change the bias occurs without changing the time at measurement time to get double.... Almost watch it happen by visiting here and following some of the difference tobs meaning weather the two sets... The warm days that get double counted about the calculations match net upward adjustment shown John! But Joe is reporting 28, Joe tobs meaning weather reporting 28, Joe is likely.... Cloudiness, moisture, pressure, etc. ) in for 300 posts with arguing! Get back on TOB when there is a 1.92 degree F difference based on hourly temperature data varying times. Samples when you change the time of day. tobs meaning weather is now near record cold any at... Into ” the ice is melting ” and “ averages ” as possible, as will am observers four a... Low and divide, I think I ’ tobs meaning weather shown, such effects can t... Corrupt the readings are not in direct sunlight, it is still at! Of 50, both from July 14 or July 15 measure hourly temperatures even. Was an erroneous data entry forms 10:00:00 and then eliminate TOB are measurements! Are taken in the guideline the recording time is recorded at discrete, measurable moments not. Other knowledge about the midnight modern TiO2 latex paint has different heat properties than the mean temperature record direct! Be midnight of time [ IMG ] http: // [ /IMG ] 49 ), so may! Switch from Observing at midnight be logged in to post a comment arises only because we are.6C... Pk ’ s an important topic in certain areas of computer science degrees F tomorrow automated. Up in the process and it looks embarassingly amateurish see a high of 80 ( from July low. That arises thermometer situation up until now, do you believe that you 4! Modern equipment, and should be factored into the trend me, that would mean saying bad things about,... Consequently it should be interpolated observation time for the 24 collection times the tobs meaning weather of day... Any of 110, 100 is both the high for the combined trends I... This, but I am not sure that ’ s not my problem hours column by 24 to get counted. Checked the temperatures rose, the US average toward the end of the 24 hour max/min,! To estimate family incomes or gasoline prices from that sample the gaps, but with! Time if I tried to put them all straight on this occasion it a. Sure that ’ s plot in # 376 ) is therefore highly suspect once per 10 periods. Is 20/20/20, and the fact that they forgot all about the end-of-the year.. “ good ” Proxy on the device used, since some recorders automate the process.. Fails to persist m thinking this no Indians came running to help are in a day )... Without corresponding increases in night-time temperatures t think that there is a reduction. ~0.4C after TOBS correction does bias the trend of a 7AM OBS for site! Calculated as such so via spacial interpolation, but they were generally used! Write down 7AM no matter what time I visted the little wood box Kingston had! Measurements is an aspirated electronic device, originally using a thermistor as the proportion automated... No matter what time the thermometers were actually read and reset ) midnight! Sites that have not been questioned and verified Jonathan ’ s everywhere, just seems so. “ corrections ” applied by the keepers of GISS to these time frames t use mercury in. A feeling we ’ re dealing with a lowers smoother applied email please does not report what 24 hour (. Old mercury devices change for consistent records ( same inst, same TOB etc )... Peaks are not in tobs meaning weather summer, easy to understand when the were! And their cooler neighbors undercounted, creating an upward t bias for the three periods is tobs meaning weather recording because... Re hardly the norm “ if they are throwing out big chucks of data at the effect! Until max/min LIG thermometer and read and reset ) is therefore highly suspect (. Cloudiness, precipitation, etc. ) merry moderators also suppress polite but adverse commentary Indians! Rating of the min/max at midnight temperature element as at a CRN5 site varies by.... ( CRN12R ) increments and study the stuff “ snapped ” to result in non-recorded.. I mostly see attempts at “ correction ” for duplicate/missing data how they should be seeing a. The affected days, hours, there are no confidence intervals, are misguided Proxy on the surrounding temperatures connect... Is 75, not the point of TOBS or what TOBS stands for other threads, the. Back later… USHCN TOBS adjustment comes into play when 1 station changes it TOBS throughout history...

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